耶鲁关于贸易战,消费支出,美国住房市场的冷漠



9月5日-耶鲁大学经济学教授Robert Shiller讨论了中美贸易战,经济,消费者支出和美国住房市场。他在“彭博市场:欧洲公开赛”上发表演讲。

35 comments
  1. This Shiller guy seems to be anti-Trump and that's his whole agenda. I could care less about Trump but unfortunately he's become the scapegoat for many things nobody wants to talk about that run much deeper than fleeting political policies of the type we have lately (i.e. last couple decades).

  2. Brother, what is so complicated about understanding the consumer? Are the speakers on this program so rich that they are out of touch with these things? Wages haven't gone up much. Not that they need to. When wages are constantly rising, that can make people nervous and stressed that they might either lose their job or need to somehow perform more or better than they did. This creates overwork and in a sense can even prevent people from being able to shop even for bare necessities sometimes. HOWEVER. If wages aren't rising, then we have to understand that housing is still way too expensive. We are still very much in a bubble. College education is exorbitantly expensive. I don't even know who understands the true reasons for this. Property taxes are nevertheless extremely high in many parts of the country. Employer/employee relationships have really veered towards favoring the employer over the past decades. Employers expect loyalty and a total commitment of employees to this thing they call 'culture', with telltale signs such as tired and overworked employees being forced to stay late for happy hour or go out for office parties instead of going back to their families, and be pounded with ridiculous slogans of all types into a total fear of speaking anything against it. At the same time employers' commitment to employees is not reciprocated at all. They only do what's absolutely required by law, and that is not much at all. It has been a free reign of layoffs, and they have gotten very comfortable with this notion that if wall street winks, they have the moral right to get rid of 'the bottom 3%'. Now notice these 3% are not fired, so they couldn't have been all that bad, but they can get laid off, even though they were once hired for their particular skills. But employers have absolutely not responsibilities for their hiring actions. So here we have it – a proliferation of ritualization of 'company life', and at the same time a complete decline in feelings of security or healthy comfort on the part of employees. Plus the american lifestyle is very car-dependent, which also creates many expenses that are not trivial, though we take them very much for granted. Maintaining many of these foreign cars we are so in love with for understandable reasons of their reliability is extremely expensive (in case you rich people haven't noticed). And going back to employment. Technology now allows people to work remotely more and thus, you would think, save tons of money and improve their health in the process, yet what do we have?? You got it – employers are very reluctant to give employees more remote work opportunities. They are for some weird reason deathly afraid of this, even though it has been pretty much proven to not reduce productivity in the least bit. ALTHOUGH they have no qualms about expecting people to use these remote work capabilities when it is in the interest of the company, the customers' demands, etc. Hope everyone reading this is getting the drift and their eyes opened at bit as to why THE CONSUMER IS NOT WELL IN AMERICA these days. I'm not even touching upon weird things like more and more younger workers becoming contractors just out of college. They're basically flailing and don't even know or sense what their future holds. I of course have not named ALL the issues, there are a bunch more, related to each one of these categories mentioned or even others. I'm sure every average middle class American can add a few to the list and fill in the blanks. But rich news anchor people act like they woke up yesterday. And rich professors touch on things that yes are true, but are not the heart of the matter. Trade war does not matter to people as much as the fact that everything including jobs has been off-shored. This creates a lot of stress and difficulties too and a very weird economic situation and a much bigger, more general question. Do US citizens matter to their own country at all anymore?? Or are we now forced to be world citizens, with a government on our land that caters not to us (though we seem to elect it and support it), but to trans-world corporations who dictate their financial interests unto every aspect of american life and no american has any recourse against this, no defense?

  3. When she said the "battle between frugality and conspicuous consumption", I thought YES, it even battles back and forth within the same person from day to day and hour to hour, depending on the alure of the latest gadget, toy, or game we see. I thought these new watches that are like tiny phones were ridiculous until I saw even the checkout lady had one. She said she loves it. Funny.

  4. Wtf capitalism was based on working hard saving your money investing it making more money and saving it. It called for hard work a work ethic. We have creditism we’re half the population can do nothing productive and be taken care of by government fiat. The other have of the population goes in debt to keep up with a lifestyle out of their reach. They no longer have jobs because businesses can’t compete when on top of paying high wages they have to pay massive taxes for the welfare state and massive insurance and retirement costs. For a sickcare system that is completely overpriced because of government subsidies. Pile on top of that out of control regulations. The government subsidizes the financial sector, the sickcare sector and the military sector. Are any of those sectors producing wealth. All other sectors pay for this subsidy so they off shore. Everything will end up like the farming sector. The government subsidizes the farms and the farmers costumers through food stamps. You get fewer and fewer farms until their are a few huge farm corporations who control everything.

  5. All the indicators in our "our greatest economy ever" are heading south. Jawboning will do little to prevent what Trump set into motion with his misallocated tax cuts (which were tax hikes for the middle class) and the trade wars that he started all by himself. Better get ready.

  6. The 3 mo, 6 mo, 1 yr, 2 yr, 3 yr, 5 yr, 7 yr, 10 yr and even the 30 yr US Bonds ALL yields less than the 1 month !!!
    Investors scrambling for low yielding bonds while stock market is being artificially pumped up by money printed out of thin air by Fed an Big Banks.
    Amazingly there is no inflation (according to powers to be 😉

  7. The Depression was caused by tariffs, and will happen again. I guess he was there, so he knows. But an Austrian bank collapse was the start. In the meantime this Chinese goon needs to disclose his funding source.

  8. It's time for America and the rest of the Western world to reduce, if not stop, trading with a repressive and totalitarian communist regime of China which has not been playing fair on trade, has a terrible record on human rights and environment protection, steals intellectual properties, cyber-hacks servers of government agencies and businesses of other countries, spies on governments, belligerently bullies its smaller neighbors in South East Asia, and illegally claims sovereignty over 90% of the South China Sea building artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago and militarizing the same with impunity, and now threatening to do a “Tiananmen Square 2.0” in Hong Kong. They can always source their consumer products from friendly ASEAN countries, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

  9. Previous recessions in our minds also cause us to think if the feds don't act quickly with QE then the recession will be worse or start immediately. Recessions come and go though, it's just part of a cycle, not much you can do to prevent it, it happens, then life goes on as usual.

  10. Lots of sarcasm in Schillers response at 4:14. Schiller hinting that the recession being engineered ahead of its time. Why? Because financial engineering requires action now so that dominos that will fall can be controlled predictably? Or because it's a setup for world war?

  11. How sad to see the swamp dwellers rearing their ugly heads, Bloomberg included. I see these people and the mainstream media's complicit narrative to undermine the administration's patriotic stand to fight for America. God bless Pres. Trump and the patriots that stand with him to fight greed and communism.

  12. What you call narrative, is the reality for others. Poor people have to pay high interest on their credit. When tariffs
    increase their spending on clothes and other necessities, they will have limited possibilities to pay their debt.
    Their fear of recession is not a narrative, it is a reality.

  13. ??????????The Chinese regime's' Tiananmen '' disregards International Law: invading and oppressing the People of the Country: Tibet, Xinjiang, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Hong Kong, Territorial and Regional Expansion Exclusive economic privileges of 200 nautical miles of other States, theft and expansion of the Economic and Military, media always lie and misrepresent the truth … United Nations, United States and Allied, National Community Te need to quickly eliminate, collapse the Regime, China's ruling authorities, eliminate the great threat to the World.?

  14. Perhaps read the book before the interview… “You wrote a book….what do think about it”…..that is us education

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