2020年奥斯卡预测(主要类别)| 2019年十月



奥斯卡奖?我们预测它们。视频?你看

最佳图片:0:06
最佳导演:8:59
最佳男主角:12:11
最佳女主角:15:37
最佳男配角:17:27
最佳女配角:20:44
最佳原著剧本:23:55
最佳改编剧本:25:06

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信箱:https://letterboxd.com/theoscarexpert/。

25 comments
  1. I believe Netflix movies should have their own category, a movie should have to be released in theaters for it to be considered for Best Picture at the oscars.

  2. Little Women is being overestimated, it was good, but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s a remake of a remake of an adaptation on a book.

  3. Has everybody simply forgotten about Jordan Peele's Us or what? I'm guessing Lupita is undeservingly going to get snubbed, but Jordan may pull out Best Original Screenplay, and if Lupita is actually nominated just like Daniel for Get Out, he might get himself nominated for both Best Director and Best Picture again.

  4. Joker is mostly a rip off of The King of Comedy — i think the masses impressed with Joker just never saw the movie it stole from, it's hardly revolutionary or original, it's just the kind of movie hollywood doesn't make often anymore, it's a dark 70s style hollywood drama — that's it. Parasite has a strong 2nd half, but it also has a meh first half that feels like a typical sitcom; nothing in the first half of parasite wowed me, never made me laugh or wowed my in the first hour. Marriage Story is the most poignant movie of the year, authentic and will make almost anyone cry — but objectively speaking, it's still not brilliant writing; the dialogue is authentic, but never brilliant. The plotting is engaging and good, but again, I cannot say it's brilliant in the plot points and storytelling. Irishman is decent, and has a strong last hour and a bit, but honestly it's not scorsese's best movie, not even close – you could chop over an hour off that movie and still tell basically the same story. The Departed had way smarter dialogue, and way tighter and more brilliant plotting — the departed really deserved best picture — I don't think Irishman does — it's just not on that level. Irishman is a mid-level scorsese movie frankly. Once Upon a Time is also mid level Tarantino, it's nowhere near the movie Pulp Fiction is for example in its plotting, instead it meanders, isn't very efficient in its storytelling. The rest of the list I haven't seen yet. These are the best movies of the year, and mostly I was pretty underwhelmed. Marriage Story for me is the most deserving and the one which I think could be truly worthy of a Best Picture oscar. Overall, I honestly expect better from hollywood. Especially the last 2 years I was disappointed. Green book is a good movie, but if that's the BEST movie of the last year, that's not saying much for the rest of the movies of the year, if that's the artistic peak of that year. The Shape of Water was barely even a good movie I felt, very weak best picture winner. Moonlight, ok, yeah, that was strong, and that year had Lalaland too; those impressed me. I just wish I was more impressed more often by cinema, but I cannot lie, I'm really not. And to think that these are all the best movies of the year, and they aren't even that amazing. What about the hundreds of weaker movies made. Not trying to be a hater, I just don't think the talent is what it used to be on average. None of these movies are making me feel like the filmmaker is some kind of genius. Whereas when I first saw Shawshank redemption, or pulp fiction, or American Beauty, the departed, Gladiator, Schindler's List… those movies have so much care in virtually every line of dialogue, the plotting is so tight, they feel to be on a whole other level to me. The fact that black panther was a best picture nominee recently really suggests to me things are slipping fast in quality. It's an ok superhero movie, that's it. If an ok superhero movie is one of the best movies of that year, we're in trouble quality wise.

  5. I wouldn't call you guys experts, since you guys don't consider foreign film to be an important oscar category, which is factually wrong. You overlooked great movies like Portrait of a Lady on Fire, and Pain and Glory, the latter of which is going to get a best actor nomination for Antonio Banderas.

  6. Best Picture- Irishman
    Best Director- Martin Scorsese
    Best Actor- Joaquin Phoenix/ Robert De Niro
    Best Actress- Rene Zellweger
    Best Supporting Actor- Al Pacino
    Best Supporting Actress- Margot Robbie
    Best Original Screenplay- Parasite
    Best Adapted Screenplay- Irishman
    Best Cinematography- 1917

  7. I feel that Joker was fine and Joaquin Phoenix was great but he has done better performances and I kinda want Driver, Phoenix should have gotten an oscar already.

  8. This might sound crazy, but I just realized something. Anthony McCarten’s last 3 films (Theory of Everything, Darkest Hour, Bohemian Rhapsody) have all gone on to be nominated for Best Picture AND win Best Actor at the Oscars… I have a hunch that The Two Popes might be more of an Oscar threat than we realize ?

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