I think you put much faith in festival awards. The Academy generally doesn't care about what wins at Cannes, Venice, Sundance etc. They don't care what critics love. They always just do their own thing.
Also, Parasite is not this year's Roma. Academy voters love Hispanic actors, hence the two acting nods for Roma. However, the Academy doesn't care about Asian actors. Hence, no acting nods for The Farewell or Parasite. Hong Chau also got snubbed in 2017 for Downsizing. The Academy only makes room for black and Hispanic actors– but not Jennifer Lopez. I correctly predicted that J-Lo would miss out. I think Academy members are too snooty to nominate her, plus everyone pretty much have forgotten about Hustlers.
Although, like you, I also thought Todd Phillips would miss out on Best Director since the directors branch tends to have less mainstream taste than the rest of the Academy. I also didn't think it'd get in for Adapted Screenplay since the writing was by far the weakest element about Joker. I mean, hell, Joker's biggest influences were Taxi Driver and The King of Comedy, which are masterpieces and had tremendous subtext and depth (unlike Joker) and even those movies got no screenplay nominations at the Oscars, let alone The Dark Knight got no screenplay nod either. But fuck, Joker made it in.
Bombshell is this year's I, Tonya. Solid movie that's elevated by great performances (both of them even had Margot Robbie) that probably won't get nominated for Best Picture.
Joker is definitely gonna be getting a Best Picture nomination. The film's success at the Golden Globes, plus it's lead with 11 nominations at the BAFTAs pretty much cement it's place in the Oscars race.
1917, once upon a time in Hollywood, the Irishman.
After last years Glenn Close robbery I don’t care about the Academy Awards
US is the worst movie I’ve ever seen apart from Black Swan
Im no prude but just when i think you are smart..you say the F… Word.
Yalk about disrespectful.. Lol
Great analysis. I agree with most of ur predictions but I don't think Sang Kang Ho or any other actor from "Parasite" has a chance of getting nominated in any acting categories (though I would love it if it happens)! And the "Best Supporting Actor" is the most competitive of all categories and I agree that Pitt, Pesci, Pacino & Hanks are the sure locks but it's sad that no one is talking about Willem Dafoe in this category as he gave one of the best performance of the year in "The Lighthouse". I hope academy members recognize his talent and give him his deserving Oscar nom if not win, in this category!
The Academy Membership is more diverse since the #OscarsSoWhite controversy. Cynthia Erivo is a Tony, Emmy & Grammy winner all for “The Color Purple” Musical on Broadway ? She’ll get nominated for Best Actress and Best Song for “Harriet”. She’ll probably win Best Song like Lady Gaga and as such, will become an EGOT.
Parasite is the least divisive film of the potential nominees and that will take it far in a preferential ballot. It will become the first foreign language film to win Best Picture!
Adam Sandler wins
We completely agree about Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. I thought I was the only one who believed De Niro will still get an Oscar nod despite the Globe and SAG snubs. And Parasite is definitely this year's Roma. Plus unlike de Tavira, Song Ko has won a Critics Circle Award.
No mention of Joker? You no nothing about movie- making. And it got 11 nominations fool.
My Predictions: (Ranked in order of most likely to win)
Best Picture: (They seem to do 9 most years, plus this is a good year) 1. Parasite 2. The Irishman 3. Once Upon a Time….In Hollywood 4. Marriage Story 5. 1917 6. JoJo Rabbit 7. Joker 8. Little Women 9. Ford V. Ferrari Bombshell and The Two Popes have a chance to sneak in. The Farewell is a long shot. Top 6 are locks. Joker is close to a lock.
Best Director 1. Bong Joon-Ho (He fits the profile of recent winners) 2. Martin Scorcese 3. Sam Mendes 4. Quentin Tarantino 5. Greta Gerwig Noah Baumbach has a very good shot. Todd Phillips shouldn't be counted out, either. Almodovar could be this year's Pavel, I guess. Tarantino is a sneaky snub pick similar to Bradley Cooper last year.
Best Actress 1. Renee Zellwegger 2. Charlize Theron 3. Scarlett Johansson 4. Saoirse Ronan 5. Lupita N'Yongo Lupita might be wishful thinking on my part. Erivo and Awkwafina have very good shots as well. I could see Ronan getting snubbed and I would be fine with that.
Best Actor: 1. Joaquin Phoenix 2. Adam Driver 3. Leo DiCaprio 4. Antonio Banderas 5. Robert DeNiro Top 3 are locks. I could seriously see Pryce or Egerton sneaking in. Bale has a chance, but I hope he doesn't get in this year. Sandler and Murphy I highly doubt.
Best Supporting Actor: 1. Brad Pitt 2. Joe Pescci 3. Al Pacino 4. Tom Hanks 5. Anthony Hopkins I wouldn't be surprised if Ho or Dafoe get in. Top 4 are locks.
Best Supporting Actress: 1. Laura Dern 2. Margot Robbie 3. Jennifer Lopez 4. Florence Pugh 5. Zhao
Tom Holland, is that you?
Do you have any social media where we can follow you? Instagram/Twitter?
Damn so you think a Joker gonna get snubbed a lot
What did Scarlett Johansson do earlier in the year
Why the dirty language?
Joker received Golden Lion Critics Choice Best Picture nom GG Best Picture and Best Director noms
Those are some major precursors that gives me a lot more confidence for it to get a BP nomination over Little Women and Bombshell. It’s been getting a lot more love than both in the industry and critic circle. I do agree Parasite is this years Roma.
I think you put much faith in festival awards. The Academy generally doesn't care about what wins at Cannes, Venice, Sundance etc. They don't care what critics love. They always just do their own thing.
Also, Parasite is not this year's Roma. Academy voters love Hispanic actors, hence the two acting nods for Roma. However, the Academy doesn't care about Asian actors. Hence, no acting nods for The Farewell or Parasite. Hong Chau also got snubbed in 2017 for Downsizing. The Academy only makes room for black and Hispanic actors– but not Jennifer Lopez. I correctly predicted that J-Lo would miss out. I think Academy members are too snooty to nominate her, plus everyone pretty much have forgotten about Hustlers.
Although, like you, I also thought Todd Phillips would miss out on Best Director since the directors branch tends to have less mainstream taste than the rest of the Academy. I also didn't think it'd get in for Adapted Screenplay since the writing was by far the weakest element about Joker. I mean, hell, Joker's biggest influences were Taxi Driver and The King of Comedy, which are masterpieces and had tremendous subtext and depth (unlike Joker) and even those movies got no screenplay nominations at the Oscars, let alone The Dark Knight got no screenplay nod either. But fuck, Joker made it in.
Bombshell is this year's I, Tonya. Solid movie that's elevated by great performances (both of them even had Margot Robbie) that probably won't get nominated for Best Picture.
Joker is definitely gonna be getting a Best Picture nomination. The film's success at the Golden Globes, plus it's lead with 11 nominations at the BAFTAs pretty much cement it's place in the Oscars race.
1917, once upon a time in Hollywood, the Irishman.
After last years Glenn Close robbery I don’t care about the Academy Awards
US is the worst movie I’ve ever seen apart from Black Swan
Im no prude but just when i think you are smart..you say the F… Word.
Yalk about disrespectful..
Lol
Great analysis. I agree with most of ur predictions but I don't think Sang Kang Ho or any other actor from "Parasite" has a chance of getting nominated in any acting categories (though I would love it if it happens)! And the "Best Supporting Actor" is the most competitive of all categories and I agree that Pitt, Pesci, Pacino & Hanks are the sure locks but it's sad that no one is talking about Willem Dafoe in this category as he gave one of the best performance of the year in "The Lighthouse". I hope academy members recognize his talent and give him his deserving Oscar nom if not win, in this category!
The Academy Membership is more diverse since the #OscarsSoWhite controversy. Cynthia Erivo is a Tony, Emmy & Grammy winner all for “The Color Purple” Musical on Broadway ? She’ll get nominated for Best Actress and Best Song for “Harriet”. She’ll probably win Best Song like Lady Gaga and as such, will become an EGOT.
Parasite is the least divisive film of the potential nominees and that will take it far in a preferential ballot. It will become the first foreign language film to win Best Picture!
Adam Sandler wins
We completely agree about Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. I thought I was the only one who believed De Niro will still get an Oscar nod despite the Globe and SAG snubs. And Parasite is definitely this year's Roma. Plus unlike de Tavira, Song Ko has won a Critics Circle Award.
No mention of Joker? You no nothing about movie- making. And it got 11 nominations fool.
Picture: parasite
Actor: Phoenix
Support: Pitt
Actress: johanson
Support: Dern
Director: parasite
My Predictions: (Ranked in order of most likely to win)
Best Picture: (They seem to do 9 most years, plus this is a good year)
1. Parasite
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time….In Hollywood
4. Marriage Story
5. 1917
6. JoJo Rabbit
7. Joker
8. Little Women
9. Ford V. Ferrari
Bombshell and The Two Popes have a chance to sneak in. The Farewell is a long shot. Top 6 are locks. Joker is close to a lock.
Best Director
1. Bong Joon-Ho (He fits the profile of recent winners)
2. Martin Scorcese
3. Sam Mendes
4. Quentin Tarantino
5. Greta Gerwig
Noah Baumbach has a very good shot. Todd Phillips shouldn't be counted out, either. Almodovar could be this year's Pavel, I guess. Tarantino is a sneaky snub pick similar to Bradley Cooper last year.
Best Actress
1. Renee Zellwegger
2. Charlize Theron
3. Scarlett Johansson
4. Saoirse Ronan
5. Lupita N'Yongo
Lupita might be wishful thinking on my part. Erivo and Awkwafina have very good shots as well. I could see Ronan getting snubbed and I would be fine with that.
Best Actor:
1. Joaquin Phoenix
2. Adam Driver
3. Leo DiCaprio
4. Antonio Banderas
5. Robert DeNiro
Top 3 are locks. I could seriously see Pryce or Egerton sneaking in. Bale has a chance, but I hope he doesn't get in this year. Sandler and Murphy I highly doubt.
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Brad Pitt
2. Joe Pescci
3. Al Pacino
4. Tom Hanks
5. Anthony Hopkins
I wouldn't be surprised if Ho or Dafoe get in. Top 4 are locks.
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Laura Dern
2. Margot Robbie
3. Jennifer Lopez
4. Florence Pugh
5. Zhao
Tom Holland, is that you?
Do you have any social media where we can follow you? Instagram/Twitter?
Damn so you think a Joker gonna get snubbed a lot
What did Scarlett Johansson do earlier in the year
Why the dirty language?
Joker received Golden Lion
Critics Choice Best Picture nom
GG Best Picture and Best Director noms
Those are some major precursors that gives me a lot more confidence for it to get a BP nomination over Little Women and Bombshell. It’s been getting a lot more love than both in the industry and critic circle. I do agree Parasite is this years Roma.