2020年奥斯卡预测-2019年12月



这些是我目前对2020年2月10日举行的第92届奥斯卡颁奖典礼的预测。大海报的提名者排名最高,而较小的海报的提名者排名最低。 。

8 comments
  1. These predictions are fantastically presented! I love the music and the countdown style to the front runners. I don’t 100% agree with the picks but do agree with the order with most of them, you really know your stuff.

    At this point I think Marriage Story is guaranteed a win for Original screenplay. Greta will take the 5th best director nomination over Baumbach and they will give him a “make up” screenplay win to help with the snub. I think Song Kang Ho will sneak in best supporting actor for Parasite.

  2. 2020 Best Actor race is the most competitive as it’s ever been. So many strong and amazing performances we’ve seen this year. But only 5 will make the cut. Oscar nominations will go as follows, there’s 2 actors that are 100% locks for nominations ABSOLUTELY NO QUESTION ABOUT THIS! Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix. The other 3 spots are up for grabs no holds bar anything goes, expect snubs and surprises. Antonio Banderas has a much greater chance than the rest to sneak in to that 3rd spot in the Oscar nods since he’s been receiving many critics choice awards so I wouldn’t discount him out so that leaves 2 open spots. I’ve been following the Golden Globe awards for a long time and here’s the common pattern, since Daniel Day Lewis’ win for Lincoln in 2013, every actor whose won in the Leading Actor in the Motion Picture Drama category has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Actor. FACT! We also know the Academy voters leaned more towards on awarding performances in drama. FACT! This Golden Globe win is very very important win for the 5 actors nominated in this category because this will give the winner a slight edge ahead of the bunch. Antonio, Adam and Joaquin have received critic awards for their performances. But, here’s where it gets tricky,
    Antonio Banderas has received a Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards nominations for Pain and Glory but missed out at the SAG awards.
    ( will that hurt his chances at an Oscar nod? Maybe or maybe not). Both Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix received nominations for the Golden Globes, SAG awards and the Critics Choice. So, this let’s us know both actors performances are widely recognized by both critics and SAG members. THIS Is the reason why I’m giving both these actors locks for Oscar nods. Here’s my prediction, the last person to win an Oscar for a performance in a foreign language film was Marion Cotillard in 2008, also Roberto Benigni won Best Actor in 1999 for Life is Beautiful. This let’s us know Academy voters don’t always leaned on awarding performances in foreign films (I’m not saying Antonio Banderas won’t win) but he’s a long shot. Adam Driver’s amazing performance in A Marriage Story is very reminiscent to Casey Affleck’s performance in Manchester by the sea. The argument scene with Adam and ScarJo was absolutely heartbreaking. But, Adam was surrounded by great actors like Scarlett Johansson, Laura Dern and Alan Alda all who gave amazing performances and most likely are future Oscar nominees. NOW, this is why I believe Joaquin Phoenix will win the Oscar. Academy voters loves transformation, both physical and mental, we’ve seen this in the past. Joaquin had a lot of screen time in the film. Academy voters appreciate actors who are able to carry a film on their own which he did. Joaquin Phoenix’s character in Joker was a duel role he played Arthur Fleck in 80% of the film and we saw the manifestation of the Joker in the final 25 minutes and a few scenes early on in the film. A complete 360 degree opposite from his character Arthur Fleck. Joaquin Phoenix brought out different emotions throughout the film he made you laugh, he made you cry, we felt sympathy, we feared him, we cheered for him. This will be an amazing and exciting Best Actor race as much as Adam Driver blew me away with his performance he’s young and will have plenty of chances at another Oscar run, you can just feel it that Joaquin Phoenix’s time to shine has finally arrived. Look forward to your response ✌️❤️

  3. I don't think De niro will get nominated, and I really think Teron and Rocketman will, Rocketman campaign was very good, and Oscar is about promoting your film and lead actors. If there's one Award that is locked, is Joaquim winning best actor.

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