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解释冠状病毒辩论的图表

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政府对全球冠状病毒大流行的回应伴随着他们的宣称“遵循科学”。但是一些专家对解决Covid-19的最有效方法持不同意见，该图解释了一些正在争论的不同理论。迈克尔·沃克和亚伦·巴斯塔尼讨论。

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20 comments

  1. We're not even convinced herd immunity *works*. The virus mutates a lot and there has been a few cases that looks suspiciously like re-infection. This may not protect you for years to come.

  4. I enjoy it when mum and dad fight!

    I think aaron is right that it goes beyond just deaths/no of illnesses – if a large proportion of workers in essential services and production of goods stop going to work either because they have virus or are avoiding virus that could lead to huge disruption to society – massive scarcity of necessary goods and services which could then lead to big social order problems

  7. I like the guys, but this is mostly waffle that misses the key discussion points of those graphs. The red and green lines enclose about 60% of all UK people getting infected, with 50000 to 500000+ deaths. The blue line is below 1% infection through to next winter. It barely scrapes above the x-axis. And if there's an outbreak next winter, you have 6 months preparation, and you stamp down hard on it again.
    The political decision is 'do everything to save lives now and in the future' or 'they're going to die, best get on with it'. UK Gov tried to sell us the second option last week. By the end of this week they'll be mostly on the first one, just a fortnight late (which means the problem is 10x bigger now).

  8. It's not just differing distributions. The red line means many more deaths (and a much higher fatality rate) because the health service becomes overwhelmed, with the result that people who otherwise would have survived die because they can't get treatment.

  9. The problem with the red line is that people would die unnecessarily due to healthcare shortages. People who could be treated in normal circumstances wouldn't be and would die instead of recovering.

  10. Could be a good video until 0:45 when this uninformed idiot started blabbering his nonsense off THE fucking point get him off the camera and talk about the point ffs

  15. From what I can make out covid-19 seems roughly 10 to 15 times worse than a seasonal flu outbreak – across all ages. So whereas flu has a death rate of around 0.1% or less, covid-19 seems to have a death rate around 1% – and is 10 to 15 times higher in each age group compared with flu. I've seen that 80% of people have so-called mild symptoms from covid-19, which seems around 2 or 3 times higher than from flu – I guess such a statistic is difficult to judge compared with more severe symptoms as less evidence is present in people with milder symptoms. As some perspective, the death rate from flu is not much higher than the death rate from suicide in the population as a whole, which is about 1 in a thousand people (about 0.1% – similar order of magnitude to flu). According to government statistics, about a quarter of sick days off work each year are due to 'mild illness' (which includes cold and flu) – only a bit more than musculosketal disorders (such as bad back). On average workers take about 4 days off work each per year due to sickness, and so about 1 of these days would roughly be due to cold and flu. So as a rough guess, I would think that this sickness rate – if covid-19 was allowed to spread to the whole population – would be around a week to two weeks off work if covid-19 is about 10 to 15 times worse than cold/flu. So economically I guess it makes sense to take a couple of weeks off work if you have suspected covid-19, and self-isolate – covid-19 is highly contagious, like flu, and so will spread like flu if many people share the same space with only even a small number of infected people. As was seen when the secretive church in south korea ignored advice about mass-gatherings – just one individual with covid-19 at that church resulted in a mass epidemic in south korea. I guess without any measures in place you would have millions of people off work for two weeks at roughly the same time? – unable to look after their kids. Looking at the death rate amongst the elderly – as bad as it is – seems to miss the picture. Despite covid-19 not being quite the same as the 1918 flu for example, it would seem to me – as someone who isn't an expert – to take the same kind of measures that were required in 1918, which many other countries are doing such as the lockdown that Italy is doing (and data suggests Italy should have done so weeks earlier to avoid the widespread outbreak). But I guess viruses have much more of an ability to spread today than 1918 – maybe there just wasn't enough time to do enough once the outbreak in China got out of hand? Maybe all we can do is just what we can and hope for the best rather than trying to 'control' it?

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